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Report 12 10 [million

Report 12 10 [million t/a] 8 6 4 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PLA Starch Blends PHA PA PBAT CA Bio-based polymers: Evolution of production capacities from 2011 to 2020 PBS PU Polyolefins Thermosets Figure 2: Bio-based polymers: Evolution of production capacities from 2011 to 2020 Evolution of the shares of bio-based production capacities in different regions 20% 52% 2011 15% 13% Figure 3: Evolution of the shares of bio-based production capacities in different regions 14% 55% 2020 13% 18% PET North America South America Asia Europe PBAT producer can switch to bio-based PBS or PBAT as soon as the bio-based diacids and diols become available, with no need to change equipment. From announcements and seeing the capacity development in their bio-based precursor chemicals, the polymers of the companies covered here are expected to be increasingly bio-based, reaching shares of 50% (PBAT) and 80% (PBS) by 2020. Table 1 gives an overview on the covered bio-based polymers and the producer companies with their locations. The database contains a total of 247 companies in 363 locations. More detailed information is provided for 114 companies in 135 locations. Main results Building blocks and monomers as a precursor of polymers Figure 1 shows the most important pathways from biomass to building blocks to polymers. The thickness of the arrows is related to the current market relevance of the corresponding building blocks, while the yellow coloured areas illustrate the direct conversion of different polymers (namely natural rubber, starch-based polymers, lignin-based polymers and cellulose-based polymers) from biomass. Finally, green-coloured pathways correspond to the routes derived from glucose, whereas the purple and the orange ones coincide with the glycerol and fatty acid pathways respectively. Only existing routes currently engaged in industrial production have been taken into consideration. There are many more pathways under research or at pilot stage. However, one can clearly see that bio-based chemical producers currently have the potential to build extensive alternative supply chains for a variety of chemicals and polymers (e.g. PU, PA). There is a strong growth in the market for bio-based precursors for drop-in solutions, which are also partially covered by the report and database. Often there are not yet any announced capacities at the polymer producer stage, so the study could not reflect the volumes of polymers derived from these precursors. There is also a strong upward potential for bio-based PA precursors for example, as well as plans to make commodity PA like nylon 6.6 and nylon 6 (partly) bio-based. For different building blocks like adipic acid (2,800 kt market in total), HMDA, caprolactam, etc. the bio-based market share is purely a matter of price compared to petrochemical routes, which is already lower in some cases. The ongoing increase in bio-based MEG capacity and the development of bio-based pTA has a considerable impact on the production capacities of partly and later fully bio-based PET. The forecast for the total Bio-PET production capacity is based on the forecast of bio-based MEG production capacity in particular – supported by announcements of future market demand. 24 bioplastics MAGAZINE [02/13] Vol. 8

Report Bio-based polymers The following paragraphs show some details about Bio- PET and PLA. Many more details – including other polymers – can be found only in the full report. Bio-based PET The Coca-Cola Company, Ford Motor Company, H.J. Heinz Company, NIKE Inc. and Procter & Gamble announced in 2012 the formation of the Plant PET Technology Collaborative (PTC), a strategic working group focused on accelerating the development and use of 100% plant-based PET materials and fibre in their products. In just a few short years, The Coca- Cola Company has expanded from producing PlantBottle TM plastic in a single location to now having facilities in most of their major markets, with further expansion to come. When such brand corporations join forces and build alliances, their impact on the supply chain becomes inevitably visible. Mono-ethylene glycol (MEG), a key component of PET resins, is already going to be produced in high volumes as bio-based diol in India (Indian Glycols LTD., 175,000 t/a) and Taiwan (Greencol Taiwan, 100,000 t/a). The Indian company JBF Industries plans for additional MEG capacities of 500,000 t/a in Brazil to come on-stream after 2015. Also developments in the production of bio-based purified terephtalic acid, the other monomer of bio-PET, have been announced. As these precursors can be used to produce partly biobased PET in any existing PET facility at relatively short notice, only very little of the bio-MEG capacity to come already matches announcements about the production of bio-PET. Companies already dedicating part of their PET capacities to the production of bio-PET are for example Teijin and Indorama Venture, both located in Asia, with 100,000 t/a and 300,000 t/a respectively. In the year 2011 about 620,000 tonnes bio-based PET were produced from bio-MEG, expected to grow to a production capacity of nearly 5 million tonnes in 2020. PLA – polylactic acid At 30 sites worldwide 25 companies have developed a production capacity of (presently) more than 180,000 tonnes per annum (t/a) of polylactic acid (PLA), which is one of the leading bio-based polymers. The largest producer, NatureWorks, had a capacity of 140,000 t/a in 2011. The other producers have current capacity of between 1,500 and 10,000 t/a. According to their own forecasts, existing PLA producers are planning to considerably expand their capacity to reach around 800,000 t/a by 2020 (see Figure 2). There should be at least seven sites with a capacity of over 50,000 t/a by that time. A survey of lactic acid producers (the precursor of PLA) revealed that production capacity could even rise to roughly 950,000 t/a to meet concrete requests from. Content of the full report This over 360-page report presents the findings of nova- Institute’s year-long market study, which is made up of three parts: market data, trend reports and company profiles. The market data section presents market data about total production and capacities and the main application fields for selected bio-based polymers worldwide (status quo in 2011, trends and investments towards 2020). The trend reports section contains a total of six independent articles by leading experts in the field of bio-based polymers and plastics. The final company profiles section includes 114 company profiles with specific data including locations, bio-based polymers, feedstocks, production capacities and applications. Bio-based Polymers Producer Database and updates to the report To conduct this study nova-Institute developed the Bio-based Polymers Producer Database, which includes a company profile of every company involved in the production of bio-based polymers and their precursors. This encompasses (state of affairs in 2011 and forecasts for 2020) basic information on the company (joint ventures, partnerships, technology and bio-based products) and its various manufacturing facilities. For each bio-based product, the database provides information about production and capacities, feedstocks, main application fields, market prices and bio-based share. Access to the database will be available end of April 2013. The database will be constantly updated by the experts who have contributed to this report. Buyers of the report will have free access to the database for one year. nova-Institute will generate an annual update of the report based on the existing report and the continuously updated database. MT www.nova-institut.eu Order the full report The full 360-page report contains three main parts - market data, six trend reports and 114 company profiles. It also includes one-year access to the Bio-based Polymers Producer Database, which will be continuously updated. The study can be ordered for 6,500 € at: www.bio-based.eu/market_study A long PDF-version of the press release this article is based on can be downloaded together with the figures at http://bit.ly/X4ILj9 bioplastics MAGAZINE [02/13] Vol. 8 25

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